Finance

Morningstar has published their 2024 Diversification Landscape Update (direct link to PDF), another useful whitepaper for DIY investors that looks closer at the correlations between different asset classes. In their Key Takeaways, they note the quick turnaround from “The Classic 60/40 Portfolio is Dead” articles at the end of 2022 to “The Classic 60/40 Portfolio is Back!” at the end of 2023.

After a dismal year in 2022, the plain-vanilla version of a 60/40 portfolio (made up of US stocks and US investment-grade bonds) gained about 18% in 2023. Diversifying into other asset classes generally led to lower returns.

This marks a reversal from 2022 when portfolio diversification was a net positive. However, the basic 60/40 portfolio, composed of US stocks and high-quality bonds, has been tough to beat over longer periods. A 60/40 portfolio improved risk-adjusted returns versus an all-stock benchmark in more than 87% of the rolling three-year periods starting in 1976.

A potential benefit from owning multiple asset classes is that the lower the correlation between asset classes (the less they move in the same direction), the greater the reduction in volatility you get by combining assets. As long as you combine asset classes with correlations below 1 (perfectly correlated), you get some degree of volatility reduction. (See top graphic.) You can also see that the volatility reduction benefit mostly occurs within the first few asset classes; you don’t need 10 of them.

As you can see from the 60/40 Key Takeaway, the catch here is that correlations aren’t always stable. We have to look for longer historical trends with evidence that it will continue. Here are a few selected charts from the research paper.

T-Bill and Chill. Over long periods, US Treasury bonds have a lower average correlation to US stocks than a Total Bond index that includes investment-grade corporate bonds. But T-Bills (cash) get rid of the interest rate risk within T-Bonds as well, which often results in T-Bills being the most reliable shelter from the storm. You might not get a handy negative correlation boost during a stock crash, but the correlation will be reliably close to zero and your principal will be ready and waiting to deploy.

International stocks offer a small diversification benefit, but are usually strongly correlated with US stocks. (Though a little less so recently.) In the end, you must have faith that international stock returns will at times exceed US stock returns for periods of time to invest in this asset class. That faith has been tested recently, but I still would rather own them than not.

Commodities and Gold. Commodities go through boom and bust cycles as part of their nature, and the correlations with US stocks can also stay high or low for years at a time. I find it all very unreliable and unpredictable. Now, Gold has shown a consistently low correlation with US stocks, which is definitely an attractive quality. I’m more concerned about the long-term returns. Again, you need to have faith that long-term average gold returns will be well above inflation.

Long-term average correlations between asset classes. At the bottom of the whitepaper, don’t miss the charts which include correlation matrixes between major asset classes over the last 1, 3, 5, 10, 15, and 20 years.

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Morningstar Asset Class Correlation Charts 2024: 20-Year Historical Matrix from My Money Blog.

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Limited-time Referral Bonus Boost: The Raisin referral bonus for new accounts has been hiked for a limited time, doubled on some tiers and now up to $200. The new tiers are below. At the $5,000 and $10,000 amounts, the bonus works out to 1% of the deposit for a minimum 90 day hold, which works out to a 4% annualized boost above the existing interest rates. ($50k tier = 1.2% APY annualized boost, $100k tiers = 0.8% annualized boost). Here is my referral link and my personal referral code is jonathanp31786. Thanks if you use it.

Full review:

Updated rates for May 2024. Raisin (formerly SaveBetter) is a financial marketplace that allows you to access high-interest certificates of deposit and savings accounts from multiple different banks and credit unions without having to open up a new account at each one. Every participation institution is either FDIC-insured or NCUA-insured. The participating banks, product terms, and interest rates change regularly. SaveBetter is now Raisin, to better match the same popular service that runs in Europe. Here are the top Raisin offers as of 4/4/2024:

High-Yield CDs

• 5.05% APY for 14-month CD. CDs are for locking in a rate. I don’t really consider anything less than a year term to be useful. Minimum opening deposit is $1.
• View all available rates

No-Penalty CDs

• 5.10% APY for a 9-month No Penalty CD. Your rate will never go down, but there is also no early withdrawal penalty. Withdrawals may be made 30 days after opening.
• View all available rates

Liquid Savings

• 5.26% APY Savings Account. Minimum opening deposit is $1. No limit on number of transactions.
• View all available rates

Background on Raisin. Raisin is a marketplace for partner banks and credit unions looking to promote their deposit products. They offer liquid savings account, No-Penalty CDs, and High-Yield traditional CDs. Funds are held in a custodial account at the bank or credit union that is providing your selected savings product(s). The banks are all FDIC-insured and the credit unions are all NCUA-insured. Raisin does not charge any monthly maintenance fees. Raisin’s US operations are a subsidiary of Raisin GmbH, a German financial company that also offers high-interest deposit products across Europe.

The benefit for the consumer is that you can easily access promotional rates at a new bank or credit union without having to open yet another new account (and endure credit checks, identify verification hurdles, join partner organizations, leave funds in share savings accounts, etc). This makes it easier to chase higher savings accounts and CD rates. You must link a single external bank account and make all your deposits and withdrawals electronically through that linked account. You can only have one external bank account linked at a time, so choose carefully.

A drawback is that you do not get direct access to your Raisin sub-accounts via routing number and account number. You must go through the Raisin site to open accounts, make deposits, and make withdrawals. Your single linked external bank is your only access to Raisin, so in a way I mentally name it also as my “Raisin bank account”. Here is a simple illustration I made that helps me visualize this setup:

Here are some more details from the Raisin site:

5. What is a custodial account and how does it work?
Custodial accounts are involved in how Raisin directs the money transfers from customers to the banks and credit unions holding their savings. When a customer makes a deposit through their Raisin account into a savings product offered by a given financial institution, the funds move from the customer’s external bank account (also referred to as the reference account) to an omnibus custodial account held by Lewis and Clark Bank (functioning in the role as a custodian bank) at the financial institution offering the savings product.

6. How does pass-through deposit insurance work?
Although Raisin customers’ deposits are pooled in omnibus accounts, there is no impact on the eligible deposit insurance coverage you receive from the financial institution holding your savings. This is because the government entities providing federal deposit insurance — the FDIC for banks and NCUA for credit unions — permit pass-through coverage. So your money that’s pooled in a custodial account still has the coverage it would have were it held in an individual account in your name.

I suspect this setup is a lower cost structure for the banks as well, which in turn allows higher interest rates. After learning about omnibus accounts, I noticed that other places like Fidelity Investments also use them in their cash sweep accounts as temporary holding accounts. Search for “omnibus” in your terms and conditions. This is also similar to how “brokered CDs” are usually managed when you buy them through a broker like Vanguard and Fidelity – the funds are pooled together at the issuing bank and don’t include individual account numbers. Same with the FDIC-insured accounts inside many 529 plans.

Referral bonus ($5,000+ deposit required). The minimum deposit on Raisin for both their savings and CDs are usually as low as $1 (each product has different terms). However, if you are new to Raisin and plan to deposit at least $5,000, they do have a referral program if you open via a referral link and enter my personal referral code jonathanp31786. You must deposit $5,000 for 90 days to earn $25, and then additional $5 for every subsequent $5,000 deposit past that, up to a max of $125 bonus ($105,000 total deposit). Here’s the fine print:

Making $125 has never been so easy or rewarding. Simply enter in the code you received from your friend or family member when you sign up for an account with Raisin. Once you fund your account and maintain an initial balance of $5,000 or more for 90 days, you will earn a minimum bonus of $25 and a maximum bonus of $125 depending on the account balance you maintained after 90 days. The bonus will be paid out within 30 days of qualification. Funds will be deposited into your external bank account linked to Raisin.

The referral bonus has been temporarily been improved. Please see the top of the post for the current tiers during this limited-time offer.

“The editorial content here is not provided by any of the companies mentioned, and has not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of these entities. Opinions expressed here are the author's alone. This email may contain links through which we are compensated when you click on or are approved for offers.”

5.05% APY CDs, 5.10% APY No-Penalty CDs, 5.26% APY Savings via Raisin (Limited-Time Bonus Boost, up to $200) from My Money Blog.

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Update May 2024: Juno just sent out the following e-mail today, which may be the best of example of public relations double-speak that I’ve seen in a while. Look at all those meaningless words! 😳 Juno paid out a lot of above-average valuable perks for a while, even before their crypto pivot, and I’m still not sure where the money came from. Unfortunately, the music has finally stopped and the party looks to be over. 🎉 🙅 They are reporting banking interruptions (ACH transfers + debit cards) and are terminating their 5% APY interest and 5% cashback program with only 48 hours notice (5/15/24). If you still have money there, I would recommend starting the withdrawal process but also having some patience. I have no reason to expect any principal losses but these types of disruptions do occur with fintech apps at times, unfortunately. This tweet says they are looking to switch banking providers in the next 4 weeks (!), but when you allow something like this to happen, that may be too little too late.

Dear Jonathan,
Juno stands at the intersection of banking and cryptocurrency, providing the quickest and easiest access to over 20 blockchains in the United States through ACH, Wire, Cash App, and more. We pride ourselves on promoting self-custody by eliminating mandatory holding periods for crypto withdrawals, distinguishing us from many U.S. crypto exchanges.

The past 18 months have witnessed remarkable growth in crypto and stablecoin sectors. These innovations are essential for creating fair and transparent financial services. At Juno, we are committed to a future where financial control rests with the users, not the banks.

In the past few days, banking services on Juno have been temporarily disrupted. Our team is hard at work collaborating with our banking services provider, Evolve Bank & Trust, and brokerage partner, Synapse Brokerage LLC., to resolve the disruptions as quickly as possible. This disruption, however, further strengthens our commitment to build a future where you are in control of your money at all times, not the banks.

Introducing Juno 2.0 – Reimagining Banking for Tomorrow

In 2024, Juno will focus intensively on developing financial services centered around crypto and stablecoins to ensure that you are always in control of your money. Our goal is to seamlessly integrate banking and crypto infrastructures to foster innovative experiences in savings, payments, and investments, making crypto and stablecoins practical for everyday use.

As part of this strategic realignment, starting May 15, 2024:

Cash held in Juno accounts will no longer accrue the 5.00% bonus, regardless of the account balance.
Additionally, purchases made with the Juno card will no longer receive a 5% cashback.

We recognize that these changes might be disappointing. However, please be assured that this decision was made with careful consideration of our long-term vision to give Juno members financial freedom by placing crypto and stablecoins at the heart of banking and financial services.

Thank you for your understanding and continued support. Should you have any questions or need more information, our customer support team is always here to assist you.

Update January 2024: Juno is now paying a 5.00% annualized bonus on balances from $20,000 up to $250,000 and 3.00% annualized on balances below $20,000.

Original post below, now outdated, last updated circa 2023:

Juno.finance (formerly OnJuno) is a fintech that combines an FDIC-insured bank account and a crypto custodian. Details:

• New: Earn 5.00% annualized bonus on all cash deposits up to $250,000 and 3.00% annualized on balances below $20,000. This applies to traditional cash deposits (USD), which are FDIC-insured through Evolve Bank & Trust. Applies to both the Basic and Metal tiers. No transaction or direct deposit requirements.
• New: JCOIN Loyalty Program. Earn loyalty tokens “JCOIN” when you complete certain actions with Juno. Existing users should check their accounts as Juno may have given you a bunch for free that you must claim. These loyalty tokens are redeemable inside the app for various perks including gift cards.

OnJuno partners with Evolve Bank and Trust for FDIC insurance. A reminder that cryptocurrencies, including USDC stablecoins, are not covered by FDIC insurance even though the creators claim they are backed 1:1 by US dollars. Juno has added support for crypto and external wallets. Don’t confuse your FDIC-insured USD deposits with stablecoins.

Traditional Bank-to-bank transfers. OnJuno uses the Plaid service to link with external bank accounts for funding and free ACH transfers (both deposits and withdrawals). They also provide you with the full account number and routing number, which you can use to connect with other banks like Ally, Marcus, CapOne 360, etc. The routing number is 084106768 which is confirmed as that of Evolve Bank & Trust. I was able to make a deposit and withdrawal initiated at Ally without issue (subject to transfer limits of $20,000 daily/$500,000 monthly). As with some other fintechs, their in-house limits are lower.

Bonus rate, not APY? You may notice that they don’t use “APY” and instead say “bonus rate”. Here’s their reason:

The Bonus Rate is offered entirely by OnJuno and is not interest provided by Evolve Bank and Trust. The bonus rate You earn will be credited to Your account at the beginning of each month. Your funds begin generating a bonus rate once they are available on Your OnJuno Checking Account. Please note that OnJuno reserves the right to cancel, remove, and change this bonus at any time. OnJuno also reserves the rights, in sole discretion, to refuse this bonus without cause, reason, and notice.

I’ve been getting my bonus rate every month without issue at the proper annualized rate, so this just seems to be a legal thing. Your interest is still shown on a 1099-INT at the end of the year.

Additional details.

• Customer service. You can contact them via phone at 415-969-5775 (9am to 6pm Pacific) or online message (they replied to me within a few hours).
• No minimum balance requirement.
• Fee-free access to both Allpoint and Moneypass ATM networks (85,000+ locations).
• Free debit Mastercard.
• No mobile check deposit yet.

Bottom line. Juno is a fintech banking app with a high-interest checking account with no direct deposit or debit card usage requirements. FDIC-insurance from Evolve Bank and Trust. It does have ties with crypto, which may be either a plus or minus for you.

“The editorial content here is not provided by any of the companies mentioned, and has not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of these entities. Opinions expressed here are the author's alone. This email may contain links through which we are compensated when you click on or are approved for offers.”

Juno Finance App: Banking Interruptions, 5% APY and 5% Cashback Terminated from My Money Blog.

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Upside is an app that earns cash back rewards on gas and restaurants. The cash back is on top of whatever cash back or rewards your credit card already earns. For the most part, you look up a local gas station or restaurant on the Upside app, “claim” the offer, and then shop at the gas station or restaurant with a linked credit card. Upside somehow tracks your credit card number through their systems and match up the transactions (takes a few days). The cash back can then be redeemed directly back into your bank account (no fees if $10 minimum cash out).

They used to require you to take pictures of your receipts, but I didn’t have to for my gas purchases. They might still ask in some cases, I believe.

Right now, there are several live promo codes that are stackable such that you can earn $1.50+/gallon on your first few purchases. I successfully earned a total of $1.75/gallon back on my first fill-up, which works out to over $20 cash back. Here are the promo codes which are potentially stackable starting with my referral code.

• Download the Upload app first and create an account.
• After installing, click on the person icon in the top right, then “Profile”, and then “Promo code” box. Try to enter each of the codes below. You may need to go back to the “Profile” screen to re-enter the next code. If it doesn’t give you an error, the code should be been applied. There is no other confirmation, other than seeing your cash back offer values go up.
• JONATHAN633925 for extra 15 cents/gallon on first purchase. Should be auto-filled if you used the link above.
• UBERPC20
• UBER35
• SHOPPERS35
• USHIP35
• YOUTUBE10
• GOPUFF35
• GOPUFF15
• AMEX35
• PERKSATWORK230
• CASHCABK25

Sources: These were collected across Doctor of Credit and GetUpside Reddit. Many of them might not work, but honestly I just tried them all to see whatever would stick. Also, I think most of them only work for the first 3 fill-ups or so.

After entering them all one-by-one, you can go back and look on your local map to see what gas stations are available nearby. Remember to first link up the credit card you use for gas (person icon > “Wallet”), and then claim the offer before you fill up and pay using that specific credit card. It’s a rather vague process, but the cash back magically showed up after 2-3 days. Hopefully, I can rack up at least $50 in cash back on gas with these promo codes.

Beyond a lot of fast food chains, I’m also seeing 6% to 20% off at a lot of local restaurants that also participate in Neighborhood Nosh (formerly iDine), which is a similar program in that the cash back is on top of credit card rewards and through linked credit card numbered. The Upside cash back percentages I’ve seen are often higher, however, so this app might actually be a long-term keeper if it keeps working reliably.

“The editorial content here is not provided by any of the companies mentioned, and has not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of these entities. Opinions expressed here are the author's alone. This email may contain links through which we are compensated when you click on or are approved for offers.”

Upside App Promo Codes: $1.50+/Gallon Cash Back on Gas, 15%+ Off Restaurants from My Money Blog.

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The 2024 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting occurred on May 4th, 2024, and while there are lots of articles offering highlights (including this one), it’s never the same feeling as tuning into the actual thing. I always find a few nuggets that mean something to me, even if just a small side remark. Warren Buffett, Greg Abel, and Ajit Jain answered questions while we felt the palpable absence of the late Charlie Munger.

CNBC again has the broadcast rights. You can find the full 7+ hour live re-broadcast on CNBC YouTube (at least for now) and they have also uploaded most of it (not all) to the CNBC Buffett Archives site. Their official transcript is not yet available, but you can find a helpful transcript from Steady Compounding or listen to the audio podcast version here. Personally, I like to listen to the audio in the car once, and then read through the transcript for the second round.

Here are a few personal takeaways and notes.

Charlie Munger tribute. The meeting started with a video tribute to Charlie Munger, but that part is not included in many of the video links. Be sure to watch it here on the full video starting at 30:34. It is a very nice and touching tribute, including many classic Charlie Munger quotes. He did things his way, all the way to the end. I always loved that Buffett and Munger genuinely had fun together. When asked about “one more day with Charlie”, here was part of Buffett’s response:

We always lived, in a way where we were happy with what we were doing every day. I mean, Charlie. Charlie liked learning. He liked, as I mentioned in the movie, he liked a wide variety of things. So he was much broader than I was.

But I didn’t have any great desire to be as broad as he was. And he didn’t have any great desire to be as narrow as I. But we had a lot of fun doing anything. And, you know, we played golf together, we played tennis together, we did everything together. And this you may find kind of interesting.

We had as much fun, perhaps even more to some extent, with things that failed, because then we really had to work and work our way out of them. And in a sense, there’s more fun having somebody that’s your partner in digging your way out of a foxhole than there is just sitting there and watching an idea that you got ten years ago just continually produce more and more profits. So it wasn’t, you know, he really fooled me, though. He went to 99.9 years. I mean, if you pick two guys, you know, he never publicly said he never did a day of exercise except where it was required when he was in the army.

He never did a day of voluntary exercise. He never thought about what he ate. You know, we started every day, and Charlie had. He was interested in more things than I was, but we never had any doubts about the other person, period. And so if I’d had another day with him, we’d probably have done the same thing we were doing the earlier days and we wouldn’t have wanted another.

The only book available at their on-site bookstore this year was the new 2023 edition of Poor Charlie’s Almanack: The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger.

Current Berkshire Hathaway stock price is close to intrinsic value. Berkshire’s cash pile keep growing, and sometimes it buys back shares when Buffett thinks it’s a good deal for existing shareholders. Right now, it seems like Buffett thinks it is only slightly undervalued to intrinsic value. Historically, buying BRK when BRK buys a lot of BRK has been a pretty good bet. (Say that three times fast!)

And our stock is at a level where it adds slightly to the value when we buy in shares. But we would. We would really buy it in a big way, except you can’t buy it in a big way because people don’t want to sell it in a big way, but under certain market conditions, we could deploy quite a bit of money in repurchases. And as you’ll see on the final slide, we have bought it in the last five years. We can’t buy them like a great many other companies because it just doesn’t trade that way.

Buffett sees higher tax rates as likely in the future, at least for corporations. When asked why he trimmed his position in Apple stock, Buffett (as he often does) redirected the question a bit to taxes.

We don’t mind paying taxes at Berkshire, and we are paying a 21% Federal rate on the gains we’re taking in Apple. And that rate was 35% not that long ago, and it’s been 52% in the past when I’ve been operating. And the government owns. The Federal government owns a part of the earnings of the business we make. They don’t own the assets, but they own a percentage of the earnings, and they can change that percentage any year.

And the percentage that they’ve decreed currently is 21%. And I would say with the present fiscal policies, I think that something has to give, and I think that higher taxes are quite likely, and the government wants to take a greater share of your income, or mine or Berkshire’s, they can do it. And they may decide that someday they don’t want the fiscal deficit to be this large, because that has some important consequences, and they may not want to decrease spending a lot, and they may decide they’ll take a larger percentage of what we earn and we’ll pay it.

[…] And if I’m doing it at 21% this year and we’re doing it at a higher percentage later on, I don’t think you’ll actually mind the fact that we sold a little Apple this year.

Living a good life. As usual, he dropped some good general life advice.

But the opportunity in this country is basically limitless. When you think of going back not that many centuries, if you were going to be a shepherd or something like that, 100 years from now, your grandson was a granddaughter, was going to be a shepherd, nothing really happened. And what has happened in the last 200 years with the combination of the industrial revolution, whether it’s science or education or health, you name it. We are so lucky to be born when we were the people in this room, and many of us were lucky enough to be born in the United States as well, that you.

You’re entering the best world that’s ever existed, and you want to find the people to share it with and the activities to participate in that fit you. And if you get lucky, like Charlie and I did, you find things that interest you young. But if you don’t find them right away, you keep looking. And I always tell students to take the job. I mean, find the job that you would like to have if you didn’t need a job.

And sometimes you can find that very early, and sometimes you go through various experiences, but don’t forget what you actually are trying to do, and there’s no place to do it like this country. Find the person that you like to share your life with in many cases. And, you know, sometimes you get lucky into that early, and sometimes you make mistakes.

But I would try to, in a very, very general way, I would try to figure out how you’d want to look back on your life and think about yourself and start today to go on the path that leads to that goal and expect some difficulties along the way. But if you’re thinking that way, you’re more likely to get there.

Keep trying, expect bumps, appreciate what you already have, and don’t let envy ruin it all. This Munger quote from the 2023 Daily Journal shareholder meeting sticks in my head: “I can’t change the fact that a lot of people are very unhappy and feel very abused after everything’s improved by about 600% because there’s still somebody else who has more.”

Berkshire shareholders as both savers and givers. Buffett reinforced the stereotype that Berkshire Hathaway shareholders are different and tend to be relatively frugal, practical, and not focused on outward appearances. Not only did a shareholder donate $1 billion dollars to a medical school in the past year (such that tuition will be free in perpetuity), but it didn’t even require them to change the name of the school. Another BRK shareholder just anonymously donated $500 million.

The next generation is fully in place. My overall impression was that while Buffett is still the top guy, with the passing of Charlie he has psychologically already passed the baton to Greg Abel and Ajit Jain. Abel is who all the subsidiary business managers deal with on a daily basis. Ajit is fully in control of the insurance side. Buffett basically said that Berkshire should be good for the next 20 years and he’s done the best he can (knock on wood).

We’ve really got the problem solved for the next 20 years unless something untoward happens. And if something untoward happens, then. Then the directors need to find, probably within our own organization, somebody that they’ve got confidence in to maintain the special advantages we have over another 20 years period. There’s various things that are low probabilities, but you still have to think about them, and we are in that position now. Now, if you asked me whether.

If something happened to Greg today, everybody says, don’t travel on the same plane. The thing to do is not travel in the same auto. Planes don’t go down that often. Autos crash all the time. I’ve seen all these corporate policies on that, which are kind of crazy when you think about the real risk.

But in any event, Greg is going to have to tell the directors about what if something happened tomorrow. He has to tell the directors about what should be done if anything happens to him. And that’s not an easy thing to do, and I don’t have.

Buffett will still be there to make sure that they properly pounce during the next crisis when everyone is scared but Berkshire. I get the sense that is really the only thing left that would get him really excited: the possibility of a future big moment with lots of buying opportunities. A few last big brush strokes for his masterpiece.

And that’s sort of the story of Berkshire. We’ll try to increase operating earnings, and we will try to reduce shares when it makes sense to do so. And we will hope for an occasional big opportunity. And we’re quite satisfied with the position we’re in.

“The editorial content here is not provided by any of the companies mentioned, and has not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of these entities. Opinions expressed here are the author's alone. This email may contain links through which we are compensated when you click on or are approved for offers.”

2024 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting Video, Transcript, and Notes from My Money Blog.

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