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Where's The Evidence That AI Increases Productivity?

Slashdot.org - Mon, 02/16/2026 - 07:34
IT productivity researcher Erik Brynjolfsson writes in the Financial Times that he's finally found evidence AI is impacting America's economy. This week America's Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a 403,000 drop in 2025's payroll growth — while real GDP "remained robust, including a 3.7% growth rate in the fourth quarter." This decoupling — maintaining high output with significantly lower labour input — is the hallmark of productivity growth. My own updated analysis suggests a US productivity increase of roughly 2.7% for 2025. This is a near doubling from the sluggish 1.4% annual average that characterised the past decade... The updated 2025 US data suggests we are now transitioning out of this investment phase into a harvest phase where those earlier efforts begin to manifest as measurable output. Micro-level evidence further supports this structural shift. In our work on the employment effects of AI last year, Bharat Chandar, Ruyu Chen and I identified a cooling in entry-level hiring within AI-exposed sectors, where recruitment for junior roles declined by roughly 16% while those who used AI to augment skills saw growing employment. This suggests companies are beginning to use AI for some codified, entry-level tasks. Or, AI "isn't really stealing jobs yet," according to employment policy analyst Will Raderman (from the American think tank called the Niskanen Center). He argues in Barron's that "there is no clear link yet between higher AI use and worse outcomes for young workers." Recent graduates' unemployment rates have been drifting in the wrong direction since the 2010s, long before generative AI models hit the market. And many occupations with moderate to high exposure to AI disruptions are actually faring better over the past few years. According to recent data for young workers, there has been employment growth in roles typically filled by those with college degrees related to computer systems, accounting and auditing, and market research. AI-intensive sectors like finance and insurance have also seen rising employment of new graduates in recent years. Since ChatGPT's release, sectors in which more than 10% of firms report using AI and sectors in which fewer than 10% reporting using AI are hiring relatively the same number of recent grads. Even Brynjolfsson's article in the Financial Times concedes that "While the trends are suggestive, a degree of caution is warranted. Productivity metrics are famously volatile, and it will take several more periods of sustained growth to confirm a new long-term trend." And he's not the only one wanting evidence for AI's impact. The same weekend Fortune wrote that growth from AI "has yet to manifest itself clearly in macro data, according to Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok." [D]ata on employment, productivity and inflation are still not showing signs of the new technology. Profit margins and earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies outside of the "Magnificent 7" also lack evidence of AI at work... "After three years with ChatGPT and still no signs of AI in the incoming data, it looks like AI will likely be labor enhancing in some sectors rather than labor replacing in all sectors," Slok said.

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Distribution Release: Emmabuntüs DE5-1.05

DistroWatch.com - Wed, 01/28/2026 - 04:35
The DistroWatch news feed is brought to you by TUXEDO COMPUTERS. The Emmabuntüs project has published an update for its DE5 branch. The new version improves volume handling, makes it easier to install WINE, and offers updated Italian language support. "The Emmabuntüs Collective is pleased to announce the release of Emmabuntüs Debian Edition 5 version 1.05, available in 32-bit....
Categories: Linux

Distribution Release: DietPi 10.0

DistroWatch.com - Wed, 01/28/2026 - 04:35
The DistroWatch news feed is brought to you by TUXEDO COMPUTERS. DietPi is a Debian-based Linux distribution, primarily developed for single-board computers such as Raspberry Pi, Orange Pi or Odroid. It also supplies builds for 64-bit x86 personal computers and virtual machines. The project's latest release, version 10.0, introduces some important changes and drops support for some old single-board....
Categories: Linux

DistroWatch Weekly, Issue 1157

DistroWatch.com - Wed, 01/28/2026 - 04:35
The DistroWatch news feed is brought to you by TUXEDO COMPUTERS. This week in DistroWatch Weekly:
Review: Setting up a home server
News: Malicious software finds a new way into the Snap store, postmarketOS automates more hardware tests, KDE's new login manager works with systemd only
Questions and answers: Why convergence has not become popular
Released last week: ELEGANCE 26.0.1, MX Linux....
Categories: Linux

Distribution Release: CachyOS 260124

DistroWatch.com - Wed, 01/28/2026 - 04:35
The DistroWatch news feed is brought to you by TUXEDO COMPUTERS. The CachyOS team has announced the release of an updated ISO image of CachyOS, a Arch-based Linux distribution with the latest KDE Plasma as the chosen desktop on the live image. The new version 260114 comes with a reworked system installer, new Plasma login manager, and Wayland as....
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Distribution Release: Skywave Linux 5.10.0

DistroWatch.com - Wed, 01/28/2026 - 04:35
The DistroWatch news feed is brought to you by TUXEDO COMPUTERS. Phil C has announced the release of Skywave Linux 5.10.0, a specialist live Linux distribution configured for connecting to internet-accessible software defined radio (SDR) receivers. It is based on Debian's "Unstable" branch and uses the dwm window manager. "Skywave Linux has been upgraded to version 5.10, bringing some....
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Distribution Release: Liya Linux 2.5

DistroWatch.com - Wed, 01/28/2026 - 04:35
The DistroWatch news feed is brought to you by TUXEDO COMPUTERS. The Liya Linux distribution is an Arch-based project which runs the Cinnamon desktop and features the Pamac package manager. The project has published a new snapshot which introduces integrated AI chat and improved support for connecting with Windows file shares. "I am pleased to announce the release of....
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Distribution Release: Guix System 1.5.0

DistroWatch.com - Wed, 01/28/2026 - 04:35
The DistroWatch news feed is brought to you by TUXEDO COMPUTERS. Guix System is a Linux-based, stateless operating system that is built around the GNU Guix package manager. The project has published its first release in about three years, introducing several changes and over 10,000 new packages: "Three years is a long time for free and open source software!....
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Distribution Release: deepin 25.0.10

DistroWatch.com - Wed, 01/28/2026 - 04:35
The DistroWatch news feed is brought to you by TUXEDO COMPUTERS. An updated version of deepin, a Debian-based Linux distribution with a custom-built Deepin Desktop Environment, has been released. The new version 25.0.10 brings various improvements to installation, file management and interface polish: "In order to further optimize the deepin 25 system update experience and enhance stability, the deepin....
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Distribution Release: MX Linux 25.1

DistroWatch.com - Wed, 01/28/2026 - 04:35
The DistroWatch news feed is brought to you by TUXEDO COMPUTERS. The MX Linux team has announced an update to the distribution's 25.x series. MX Linux 25.1 maintains the existing Debian 13.1 base and sees a return to offering a choice of init software at boot time. "Making a return as of 25.1 is a dual-init setup with both....
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